The Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment model-observation intercomparison project (COMBLE-MIP) – Part 1: Model specification, observational constraints, and preliminary findings

Juliano, Timothy W.; Tornow, Florian; Fridlind, Ann M.; Ackerman, Andrew S.; Elsaesser, Gregory S.; Geerts, Bart; Lackner, Christian P.; Painemal, David; Silber, Israel; Ovchinnikov, Mikhail; Svensson, Gunilla; Tjernström, Michael; Wu, Peng; Baró Pérez, Alejandro; Bogenschutz, Peter; Chechin, Dmitry; Chandrakar, Kamal Kant; Chylik, Jan; Debolskiy, Andrey; Fadeev, Rostislav; Gupta, Anu; Ickes, Luisa; Karalis, Michail; Köhler, Martin; Kosović, Branko; Kuma, Peter; Li, Weiwei; Mortikov, Evgeny; Morrison, Hugh; Neggers, Roel A. J.; Possner, Anna; Raatikainen, Tomi; Raillard, Lea; Romakkaniemi, Sami; Schnierstein, Niklas; Shima, Shin-ichiro; Silin, Nikita; Tolstykh, Mikhail; Vignon, Étienne; Xue, Lulin; Zhang, Meng; Zheng, Xue

doi:10.5194/acp-26-13267-2026

Article

The Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment model-observation intercomparison project (COMBLE-MIP) – Part 1: Model specification, observational constraints, and preliminary findings

Timothy W. Juliano¹, Florian Tornow^{2, 3}, Ann M. Fridlind³, Andrew S. Ackerman³, Gregory S. Elsaesser^{2, 3}, Bart Geerts⁴, Christian P. Lackner⁴, David Painemal⁵, Israel Silber⁶, Mikhail Ovchinnikov⁶, …

Gunilla Svensson⁷, Michael Tjernström⁷, Peng Wu⁶, Alejandro Baró Pérez^{7, 8}, Peter Bogenschutz¹⁸, Dmitry Chechin⁹, Kamal Kant Chandrakar¹, Jan Chylik¹⁰, Andrey Debolskiy¹¹, Rostislav Fadeev¹², Anu Gupta¹³, Luisa Ickes⁸, Michail Karalis⁷, Martin Köhler¹⁴, Branko Kosović¹⁵, Peter Kuma^{16, 20}, Weiwei Li¹, Evgeny Mortikov¹¹, Hugh Morrison¹, Roel A. J. Neggers¹⁰, Anna Possner¹⁶, Tomi Raatikainen¹⁷, Lea Raillard^{19, 21}, Sami Romakkaniemi¹⁷, Niklas Schnierstein¹⁰, Shin-ichiro Shima¹³, Nikita Silin¹¹, Mikhail Tolstykh¹², Étienne Vignon¹⁹, Lulin Xue¹, Meng Zhang¹⁸, Xue Zheng¹⁸

¹U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, USA
²Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
³National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY, USA
⁴University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY, USA
⁵NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA, USA
⁶Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA, USA
⁷Department of Meteorology and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
⁸Chalmers Technical University, Gothenburg, Sweden
⁹Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS), Moscow, Russia
¹⁰University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany
…

¹¹Research Computing Center, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia
¹²Institute of Numerical Mathematics (INM), RAS, and Hydrometcentre of Russia, Moscow, Russia
¹³Graduate School of Information Science, University of Hyogo, Kobe, Japan
¹⁴Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), Offenbach am Main, Germany
¹⁵Ralph O’Connor Sustainable Energy Institute, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
¹⁶Goethe University, Frankfurt, Germany
¹⁷Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
¹⁸Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA, USA
¹⁹Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique-IPSL, Sorbonne Université/CNRS/Ecole Normale Supérieure-PSL Université/Ecole Polytechnique-Institut Polytechnique de Paris, Paris, France
²⁰Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Norrköping, Sweden and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
²¹now at: Environmental Remote Sensing Laboratory, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland

Article PDF

Abstract

Models struggle to represent the coupled microphysical, turbulent and radiative processes within widespread, long-lived marine cold-air outbreak (CAO) cloud fields, contributing to forecast and climate biases. Here we combine ground-based and satellite measurements to initialize and constrain large-eddy simulations (LES) of cloud field evolution with distance downwind from the marginal ice zone during a strong, highly supercooled and convective CAO observed during the Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE). LES results are compared with large-scale models run in single-column model (SCM) mode, providing an observation-constrained framework for large-scale model evaluation and future improvements. All models reproduce rapid cloud formation off the ice edge, and a monotonic ascent of downwind cloud-top heights, closely linked with time-integrated surface heat fluxes. LES generally reproduce domain-mean observational targets using a modest test domain (25×25 km2), and a larger domain (125×125 km2) enables better reproducing the observed growth of convective cell sizes. In realistic mixed-phase LES compared with liquid-only simulations, ice processes lead to thinner, broken cloud decks and substantially reduced cloud radiative effects on top-of-atmosphere longwave fluxes. By contrast, mixed-phase SCM simulations generally underpredict the radiative impact of ice, primarily owing to insufficient reduction of cloud cover. Results indicate that cellular cloud structure is qualitatively captured by LES, and thus LES could provide guidance to improvement of large-scale model physics schemes. Follow-on work will extend these results to larger domains, apply objective analysis of mesoscale structure, and include prognostic aerosol properties for droplet and heterogeneous ice formation.

Journal:: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Volume:: 26
Issue:: 18
Pages:: 13267–13302
DOI:: 10.5194/acp-26-13267-2026
Submitted:: 1 April 2026
Accepted:: 30 July 2026
Published:: 22 September 2026
License:: Open access / Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)

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Juliano, T. W., Tornow, F., Fridlind, A. M., Ackerman, A. S., Elsaesser, G. S., Geerts, B., Lackner, C. P., Painemal, D., Silber, I., Ovchinnikov, M., Svensson, G., Tjernström, M., Wu, P., Baró Pérez, A., Bogenschutz, P., Chechin, D., Chandrakar, K. K., Chylik, J., Debolskiy, A., … Zheng, X. (2026). The Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment model-observation intercomparison project (COMBLE-MIP) – Part 1: Model specification, observational constraints, and preliminary findings. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 26(18), 13267–13302. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-13267-2026

Juliano, T.W. et al. (2026) “The Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment model-observation intercomparison project (COMBLE-MIP) – Part 1: Model specification, observational constraints, and preliminary findings,” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 26(18), pp. 13267–13302. Available at: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-13267-2026.

Juliano, Timothy W., Florian Tornow, Ann M. Fridlind, et al. “The Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment Model-Observation Intercomparison Project (COMBLE-MIP) – Part 1: Model Specification, Observational Constraints, and Preliminary Findings.” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 26, no. 18 (2026): 13267–302. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-13267-2026.

Juliano, T. W., Tornow, F., Fridlind, A. M., Ackerman, A. S., Elsaesser, G. S., Geerts, B., et al. (2026). The Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment model-observation intercomparison project (COMBLE-MIP) – Part 1: Model specification, observational constraints, and preliminary findings. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 26(18), 13267–13302. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-13267-2026

Juliano, T. W., and Coauthors, 2026: The Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment model-observation intercomparison project (COMBLE-MIP) – Part 1: Model specification, observational constraints, and preliminary findings. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 26, 13267–13302, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-13267-2026.

Juliano, T. W., Tornow, F., Fridlind, A. M., Ackerman, A. S., Elsaesser, G. S., Geerts, B., Lackner, C. P., Painemal, D., Silber, I., Ovchinnikov, M., Svensson, G., Tjernström, M., Wu, P., Baró Pérez, A., Bogenschutz, P., Chechin, D., Chandrakar, K. K., Chylik, J., Debolskiy, A., Fadeev, R., Gupta, A., Ickes, L., Karalis, M., Köhler, M., Kosović, B., Kuma, P., Li, W., Mortikov, E., Morrison, H., Neggers, R. A. J., Possner, A., Raatikainen, T., Raillard, L., Romakkaniemi, S., Schnierstein, N., Shima, S.-ichiro, Silin, N., Tolstykh, M., Vignon, É., Xue, L., Zhang, M., and Zheng, X.: The Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment model-observation intercomparison project (COMBLE-MIP) – Part 1: Model specification, observational constraints, and preliminary findings, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 26, 13267–13302, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-13267-2026, 2026.


@article{juliano2026,
  title = {The Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment model-observation intercomparison project (COMBLE-MIP) – Part 1: Model specification, observational constraints, and preliminary findings},
  year = {2026},
  journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
  volume = {26},
  number = {18},
  pages = {13267-13302},
  doi = {10.5194/acp-26-13267-2026},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-26-13267-2026},
  author = {Juliano, Timothy W. and Tornow, Florian and Fridlind, Ann M. and Ackerman, Andrew S. and Elsaesser, Gregory S. and Geerts, Bart and Lackner, Christian P. and Painemal, David and Silber, Israel and Ovchinnikov, Mikhail and Svensson, Gunilla and Tjernstr\"{o}m, Michael and Wu, Peng and Bar\'{o} P\'{e}rez, Alejandro and Bogenschutz, Peter and Chechin, Dmitry and Chandrakar, Kamal Kant and Chylik, Jan and Debolskiy, Andrey and Fadeev, Rostislav and Gupta, Anu and Ickes, Luisa and Karalis, Michail and K\"{o}hler, Martin and Kosovi\'{c}, Branko and Kuma, Peter and Li, Weiwei and Mortikov, Evgeny and Morrison, Hugh and Neggers, Roel A. J. and Possner, Anna and Raatikainen, Tomi and Raillard, Lea and Romakkaniemi, Sami and Schnierstein, Niklas and Shima, Shin-ichiro and Silin, Nikita and Tolstykh, Mikhail and Vignon, \'{E}tienne and Xue, Lulin and Zhang, Meng and Zheng, Xue}
}


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Peter Kuma
Science and Software

The Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment model-observation intercomparison project (COMBLE-MIP) – Part 1: Model specification, observational constraints, and preliminary findings

Abstract

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